9/28/10

WEEK 3 REVIEW

In general, a much more predictable week.  The Eagle's Eye picks had a SOLID 5 wins and 2 losses in the Gold and Silver categories. This was on top of a 7 and 2 week last week.   Over Under total went 7 and 8 and the Picks total was 10 and 6.  Over Unders are still in need of some refinement so we are going to run some additional screens on the data this week.
The lines are established for the week and all the data is in.  The eagleseye has recovered from that appauling 4th quarter performance by the Green Bay Packers last night  that cost us an 80% week and is ready to go to work.  We are live and kicking this week so for those of you who are signed up, watch your Inbox.
Stay tuned for this weeks prognostications.

9/22/10

FREE NFL PICKS WEEK 3

Good Evening Everyone
Welcome to our new readers from all across America.  There has been a significant increase in traffic and we are now attracting viewers from Canada and Alaska.  I trust that you will enjoy this weeks selections and to those of you who are just getting to know the EaglesEye, believe me, we are just warming up.  Please feel free to comment on these posts, or if you have specific questions you can email me at eagleseyenfl@gmail.com

This week has some large point spreads to contend with and some very tight contests that will be interesting to watch.  We are getting more in tune with these teams and the predictions are beginning to jump off the sheet.  Once again the BRONZE picks are not to be trusted with any degree of confidence but only to confirm or refute your own suspicions.  The SILVER are gaining confidence every week and though fewer in number as the data refines, they will provide handsome rewards.  GOLD need no explanation.  From 7 and 6 Week 1 to a healthy 2 and 0 last week, LOCK AND LOAD.  Unfortunately we have only one GOLD pick this week but let's keep an eye on the SILVER.

Here we go............

TITANS +3           GOLD               OVER 42              BRONZE

BUFFALO +14     SILVER             UNDER 42.5        BRONZE

BROWNS +10.5   BRONZE          UNDER 37            BRONZE

PITT -3                 BRONZE           OVER 33.5           BRONZE

BENGALS -3      SILVER               OVER 38               SILVER

FALCONS +4     SILVER               UNDER 49.5          SILVER

K C +2.5            BRONZE              OVER 36              BRONZE

TIGERS + 11     BRONZE              UNDER 42           BRONZE

HOU -3             BRONZE               OVER 47                SILVER

WASH -3.5       SILVER                 OVER 38.5           BRONZE

EAGLES -2.5   BRONZE               UNDER 44.5         BRONZE

COLTS -5.5      BRONZE               UNDER 48             SILVER

CHARGERS -5.5     BRONZE       UNDER 44              SILVER

CARDINALS -4      BRONZE        UNDER 39            BRONZE

JETS -2            SILVER                 OVER 34.5            BRONZE

PACKERS -3   SILVER                 UNDER 44            BRONZE

Please feel free to comment and email me.
Have a great weekend.

9/21/10

WEEK 2 PICKS REVIEW

Another great weekend of NFL Football.  There is so much good news this week that I do not know where to start.  First of all, the data is shaping up nicely and we are now seeing who are for real and who are the posers.

The Eagles Eye is in a contest with other handicapping systems and so far we are running 2nd OVER UNDER and 3rd ATS Picks.  That should tell you that these first few weeks are truly, truly a total Crap Shoot.  Unfortunately in this contest a pick for each game has to be entered therefore the results are a little distorted but we are going to try and hit the front this weekend and stay there till the end of the season.

This was definitely another week to watch, listen and learn as the Vikings fell to the Fish and the Cowboys were mauled by the Bears.  Well fortunately the data is definitely starting to make sense.

The BRONZE picks that on a regular week we would not even touch followed a winning Week 1 performance with a resounding THUD !!!!!!!!!!!!  This is to be expected and should not cause any alarm. There is great comfort to be taken in the fact that the SILVER picks were 3 and 2 this week.

The FANTASTIC news is that the GOLD picks were 2 and 0  (KC and Clev UNDER and GB -13).  These are our Bread and Butter.  These are what this system is all about.

We are going to wait one more week to confirm and adjust and then we are off to the races.  Of course if you want to pull the trigger early that is entirely up to you.

The Eagles Eyesight is starting to sharpen and the opportunities in the point spreads are starting to appear.

Stay tuned for this weeks prognostications.

9/17/10

NFL WEEK 2 FREE PICKS (UPDATE)

There are no significant line moves as of Friday night so we are set with the picks from the previous post.

Merriman is a game time decision for San Diego, Vick is starting for the Eagles which might mean trouble for Detroit. Jake Delhomme is doubtful for Cleveland so I like the KC pick even better.

All in all it should be another excellent week of NFL action.  The data points get stronger with every down and the EaglesEye is raring to go.

Enjoy your weekend.

9/15/10

NFL WEEK 2 FREE PICKS

Well there were some entertaining games to open the season but it certainly reinforces our decision to wait for some data.  Again we are on the sidelines this week although if I were in Vegas this weekend I would be all over a few of these.

Here are the Eagleseye picks based on the early lines.  Stay tuned for tweaks based on any movement.
There are picks for every game however the BRONZE picks are squeaky.

AZ V ATL
Atlanta wins the game but you cannot expect them to cover 6.5
AZ +6.5 BRONZE          SILVER UNDER 43

BALT V CINN
This is going to be close but Baltimore should shut down the Bengal offense and cover the 2
BALT -2 BRONZE          BRONZE UNDER 40

KC V CLEV
This battle might not be the most exciting game of the weekend
KC +2 SILVER               GOLD UNDER 38.5

CHICAGO V DALLAS
Easy win for the home team and they should win by 2 touchdowns
DALLAS -8 SILVER      BRONZE UNDER

EAGLES V LIONS
Detroit might make a game of this but will still come up short
EAGLES -4 BRONZE     UNDER 41.5 BRONZE

BUFFALO V PACKERS
Despite injuries Packers win this one going away and will easily cover the massive 13
PACKERS -13 GOLD     OVER 42.5 BRONZE

PITT V TENN
Are Titans for real?  This might give us a clue.
STEELERS +5.5 BRONZE     OVER 37 BRONZE

MIA V MINN
Minnesota are excellent at home and I do not see MIA changing that.
MINN -5.5 SILVER          UNDER 39.5 BRONZE

TAMPA V CAROLINA
This game makes me nervous
CAR -3.5 BRONZE         UNDER 39 BRONZE

SEATTLE V DENVER
Was last week an accurate assesment of the Seahawks?  They might not win this but will cover
SEATTLE +3.5 BRONZE   UNDER 40.5 BRONZE

SAINTS V 49ERS
The Saints go marching in again
SAINTS -5.5 BRONZE     OVER 43.5  SILVER

ST LOUIS V OAKLAND
This is one game where you won't need the points but it's early so take them for insurance
ST LOUIS +3.5 SILVER     UNDER 38 BRONZE

PATRIOTS V JETS
The most interesting match up of the week
NE -2.5 BRONZE     OVER 37.5 BRONZE

JAGS V CHARGERS
Rivers had trouble in the rain last week and will have trouble with the 8 point spread this week.
JAG +8 BRONZE         OVER BRONZE

HOUSTON V WASHINGTON
Washington will hang tough but Oilers should cover
HOUSTON -3 BRONZE  UNDER SILVER

GIANTS V COLTS
This is a big spread to contend with here and the Giants should keep it close
GIANTS +5.5 BRONZE      UNDER 48.5  SILVER

Good luck everyone and let me know if you have questions or need more information.

9/11/10

SUMMARY REVISED WEEK 1 PICKS

BRONZE

COWBOYS -3     BENGALS +5     DOLPHINS -3     49ERS -3     OAK TENN OVER 40.5
MIA BUFF UNDER 39     FALCONS -1.5     SD KC UNDER 45.5     DET CGO UNDER 44.5
SF SEA OVER 37     BALT JETS OVER 36.5     INDY HOU UNDER 47     CLEV TB UNDER 37.5
DALL WASH UNDER 39.5

SILVER

DEN JAX UNDER 40.5     GB PHIL OVER 47.5     SAN D -4.5     CAR GTS OVER 41
BEARS -6     BUCS -3     AZ ST L OVER 39.5     RAVENS +2     BRONCOS +3
CARDINALS -3.5     TITANS -6.5     CINN NE UNDER 44.5     PITT ATL OVER 38.5

GOLD

PANTHERS +6

NFL WEEK 1 FREE PICKS REVISED

A disappointing opener between the Saints and the Vikings wasn't it ?  The good news was that at kick off the line was 4.5 so technically the New Orleans pick was correct, however the lack of scoring proved that the decision to hold back on the first week of football is also correct.

I am also renaming 3 star picks GOLD, 2 star are SILVER and 1 Star BRONZE.

LINE MOVES in recent hours have made the following analysis necessary.

Carolina v Giants line is now Giants -6 so our CAROLINA +6 is still a solid GOLD pick.
Over Under still SILVER at OVER 41

Miami v Buffalo UNDER 39 still BRONZE however the move to Miami -3 makes MIAMI -3 a new BRONZE selection.

Atlanta v Pittsburgh O/U up a point to 38.5 downgrades our OVER 38.5 to SILVER. ATLANTA -1.5 from -2.5 is a solid improvement in our formerly weak BRONZE pick.

Detroit v Chicago remains a solid SILVER CHICAGO -6 proposition however the O/U to 44.5 moves our weak over pick to an even weaker BRONZE UNDER 44.5 selection.

Cincy v New England is getting a lot of attention the lines is bouncing around more than an Antonio Freeman from Brett Favre completion.  As of now we are down to SILVER on the UNDER 44.5 and we now have a BRONZE BENGALS +5 selection.  This game could be more fun to watch than the Packers v Eagles game.

Cleveland v Tampa Bay is quiet.  We are still Solid SILVER BUCS -3 and we have been given a little more confidence with our BRONZE UNDER which is now 37.5

Denver v Jacksonville has moved to Jack -3.  Thanks for the extra half we are SILVER DENVER+3. We are also grateful for the extra point for our now SILVER, (formerly bronze), UNDER 40.5 pick.

Colts v Texans now Colts -3 we reamin totally on the sideline and we are still BRONZE UNDER 47.

Oakland v Tennessee we remain SILVER TENN -6.5 and BRONZE OVER 40.5

Packers v Eagles line is now Packers -3. this takes us off of this game but we are now SILVER over 47.5.  This game has a lot of promise for football fans.  I hope it does not cause too many Packer fans to chew their fingers down to the knuckels.

San Fran v Seattle our BRONZE SF-3 pick improves half a pint and we are still BRONZE OVER 37

Arizona v St Louis  I don't know if this is increased confidence in St Louis or waning confidence in Arizona but ARIZONA -3.5 is now SOLID GOLD and we are still solid SILVER OVER 39.5.

Dallas v Washington has moved a point but is still BRONZE UNDER 39.5 but a move to Dallas -3 has given us the green light to go BRONZE DALLAS -3.

Baltimore v Jets was a weak pick and is now even weaker at BRONZE OVER 36.5 but we remain solid SILVER with BALTIMORE +2.

San Diego v Kansas City  A big 1.5 point move makes a weak Silver pick into a SOLID SILVER SAN DIEGO -4.5 selection and we have a little more confidence in our BRONZE UNDER 45.5 pick.

See next post for summary of this weekends action.
Good Luck

9/6/10

NFL WEEK 1 FREE PICKS

HEEERRRRRRRRREEEEEE WEEEEEEEEEE GOOO !!!!!!!!!!

As seasoned followers of the eagleseye know, we do not risk our hard earned dollars on the first couple of weeks of the season.  I am publishing these picks mainly to show you the calibration process.
The data points are new and untested and we need some full impact playing time to harden our data and steel our resolve.

There are 15 picks that I am classifying as 1 STAR picks.  These are relatively worthless because we have little or no margin of error.

SF -3.5     OAK/TENN OVER 40.5     MIA/BUFF UNDER 38.5     ATL -2.5     SD/KC UNDER 44.5
DET/CGO OVER 43     PHILLY +4     SF/SEA OVER 37     N ORL -5.5     BALT/JETS OVER 35.5
IND/HOU UNDER 47   CLEV/TB UNDER 37   DEN/JAX UNDER 39.5   DALL/WASH UNDER 40.5
GB/PHIL OVER 48

There are 9 decent 2 STAR picks.  These are worth paying a little attention to.

SAN D -6 V KC    CAR/NYG OVER 41   CGO -6 V DET    TBAY -3 V CLEV    AZ/ST L OVER 39
BALT +2 V JETS     DEN +2.5 V JAX     AZ -4 V ST L     TENN -6.5 V OAK

The 4 picks that are classified as 3 STAR worthy are for you impatient guys that are itching to pull the trigger and were probably investing in the outcomes of the pre-season try-outs.

CINN/NEW ENG UNDER 45.5    This line opened at 43.5 and has received a lot of attention from the over excited bengal fans.  NE opened at 5.5 pt favs and this has been wagered down to 4.
PITT/ATL OVER 37.5    This line opened at 40 and Pitt being favored by 1.  PITT are now 2.5 pt dogs.
CAROLINA +7 V NYG  This is an awful lot of points for a Carolina team who are usually very good at keeping opposing offenses under 20 points.
VIKINGS/SAINTS OVER 48     Once again a large number for the season opener, but this is going to be a slugfest.  Minnesota allows 24 pts + average when they are on the road and New Orleans score 30 wherever they play.  They have moved the line down to 48 from an opening of 51 to even the book but the eye see's 59 pts here in this supergrudge first game of the new season.  Shame more people won't be able to see it.

Well there they are folks.  Something to keep in mind as the first week of the new season unfolds.
Have a great week

9/5/10

FREE NFL PICKS WEEK 1

As most of you know, we don't put money to work in earnest on week 1.  I will however have guidance before the season kicks off.
Check back tomorrow for a review of the analysis.

OVER UNDER WIN TOTALS NFL 2010

Here is the guidance for this season.  I will monitor and feedback periodically througout the season.

CARDINALS          OVER 7.5          PATRIOTS     OVER 9.5
49 RS                      OVER 8.5          JETS               UNDER 9.5
SEAHAWKS          UNDER 7.5       DOLPHINS     UNDER 8.5
RAMS                     UNDER 5          BILLS             UNDER 5.5

SAINTS                  OVER 10.5       BENGALS       OVER 8
FALCONS              OVER 9            RAVENS         OVER 9
PANTHERS           OVER 7.5         STEELERS      UNDER 9
BUCS                     UNDER 5.5       BROWNS        UNDER 5.5

COWBOYS           OVER 10           COLTS            OVER 11
EAGLES               UNDER 8.5        TEXANS         OVER 8
GIANTS                UNDER 8.5       TITANS           UNDER 8.5
REDSKINS           OVER 7.5          JAGUARS       UNDER 7

PACKERS            OVER 9.5          CHARGERS    OVER 11
VIKINGS              OVER 9.5          BRONCOS      UNDER 7.5
BEARS                 UNDER 7.5       RAIDERS        UNDER 6
LIONS                  UNDER 5           CHIEFS           UNDER 6.5

WELCOME TO THE EAGLESEYE

For those of you who are new to the Eagles Eye, here is a brief outline of the mission.
In 2002 I began applying some scientific theories to the task of uncovering opportunities created by oddsmakers in Las Vegas.  This was after an earth shattering comment by a good friend of mine.  He reminded me that the object of the point spread was not to predict the result but to create two piles of money on each side of the wager.  Thus allowing the oddsmakers to thrive off of the little taste which is taken out of both piles of money.
This common sense revelation hit me like a bucket of cold water !!!
Since then I have been applying my craft, developing a system that can beat these odds week after week.
As with anything that involves human behaviour, there are always anomalies, however, my system is designed to factor these out and return a significant profit that far outweighs the risk.
I hope you add eagleseye to your favorites and please tell your friends.