1/30/11

FREE NFL PICKS SUPERBOWL ANALYSIS

Before I go forward with my analysis of the Superbowl I want to provide a disclaimer.  This is NOT the Eagleseye pick.  We have run the numbers and there is not enough security to make a GOLD OR SILVER pick on this years Main Event.
As I said yesterday, the early money was for the Pack and that is being met with some balance now in Las Vegas even though there was a 1 MILLION DOLLAR WAGER placed with the MGM yesterday on Green Bay -2.5.  There has also been some serious money wagered on the UNDER and that number will probably move lower in the next few hours.
Initially the Sportsbooks were salivating at the possibility that this game would prove to be the heaviest wagered in history, surpassing the 94.5 Million wagered in 2006.  (The recession has cut that number significantly in the past few years).  However the current projections are closer to 85 million.  This is Vegas only of course, it doesnt include offshore or Office Pool money.
Lets get back to next Sunday's contest.
As I said yesterday, I do not think we have seen the best game from each of these teams and they are both facing their most competent opponents of the season.  When you try to compare the Steelers and Packers on recent performances, there are some distinct differences that will have implications on Sunday.  It is these differences that cannot be seen with statistical analysis, (hence no eagleseye selection), but appears relatively obvious upon detailed review.
I could go on for pages and pages laying out this game as it MIGHT play out but lets cut to the chase and see how it WILL play out.

GREEN BAY WILL WIN THIS GAME BY AT LEAST 7 POINTS.
THE GAME WILL GO OVER THE CURRENT 44.5 POINTS
Here's why.
Green Bay have been in the "MUST WIN" mindset since their narrow loss to the Patriots in Week 15.
Since then they have disposed of the Giants (Power Rank 10) 45-17.  Chicago (Power Rank 2), Philly (Power Rank 11), Atlanta (Power Rank 6), Chicago again (Power Rank 3).  Each time they have had an excellent, well executed game plan and different pieces of the team have stepped up to pull out the win.

McCarthy has not played an all out game since the Patriots and they went into New England on a Sunday night, threw down the gauntlet with an onside kick to start the game and almost beat the Power Ranked Number 1 team in a 27-31 barnburner.  Even in the Atlanta game, the Packers put the Falcons away in the Second Quarter.  Had two long outatanding drives in the 3rd quarter and basically containd and stiff-armed the opponent in the fourth.  This is a very well efficent team with a versatile arsenal of weapons and a very competent coaching staff that knows exactly what they are capable of.

Green Bay will abandon a concerted running game and pull out all their offensive weapons, some of which have not been seen yet.  They will expose the holes in the Steelers secondary and that injury to the Pouncey will aid the Packers.  As long as Rodgers does not take a helmet to the jaw early in the game and gets time to check down the pass options, we will see a clinic on Sunday.

Defences get teams to the Superbowl and sometimes they can win Superbowls but these teams are so evenly matched on the line they will cancel each other out.  The one area that is going to be a surprise in this game is that in order to run clock, the pack are going to have to pass, YES PASS.  Running 3 times up the middle for 2 yards a carry is not going to get this done, and they know it.  Therefore the Packers will be playing a very open game so it should be very enjoyable to watch.

As Pittsburgh get behind, Pittsburghs Number 7 will be forced to take more risks.  This is something that Pittsburgh, while being a very capable team, are just not used to doing.  In part, because they have not really needed to do so.  Even in the Baltimore game where a bad first quarter had them playing catch up, they had the game in hand and were so obviously the better team.  Mendenhall is a scary player, and Ward is dangerous but as long as they don't let his trash talk get under their skin, the Packers should be able to contain and outscore.  Getting to Roethlisberger is key but he's a big target and not as agile as Vick or Ryan and they have disposed of them already.

MY PREDICTION AND INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
GREEN BAY PACKERS 30
PITTSBURGH 21

PACKERS MONEYLINE
PACKERS -2.5
OVER 44.5
PACK TO WIN BY 5-8 PTS IS CURRRENTLY 5/1
PACK TO WIN BY 9-12 IS CURRENTLY 7/1
IST SCORE PACKERS FIELD GOAL 11/4
IST SCORE PITT FIELD GOAL 3/1
PACKERS TO SCORE IN EVERY QUARTER 2/1
TOTAL POINTS SCORED 46 TO 50 4/1
TOTAL POINTS SCORED 51 TO 55 5/1
PACKERS TO SCORE 28 10/1
PACKERS TO SCORE 30 12/1
PACKERS TO SCORE 33 20/1
AND MY FAVORITE INVESTMENT FOR THE SUPERBOWL
AND MY LOCK OF THE WEEK.......................................
GOD WILL BE THE FIRST PERSON THANKED BY THE MVP 3/2

Enjoy what should be a fun and exciting game.
Thanks for reading
EAGLESEYE

1/29/11

FREE NFL PICKS CONF CHAMPIONSHIPS REVIEW AND SUPERBOWL PREVIEW

Fantastic football last weekend.  McCarthys game plan cost us the over in the Packers Bears game. but hey, he got his team to the Superbowl.    Pittsburgh also played that "get ahead early and then hold the lead" game.  At least we managed to get an OVER out of them.  Therefore it was a VERY successful weekend for the Eagleseye.  3 of 4 of our picks came home to bring the winning streak all the way from week 12.  Since then the INNER SANCTUM has enjoyed a 599% return on investment.  I cannot find a system that has done better than that.  If you can PLEASE LET ME KNOW.

The SUPERBOWL line is Packers -2.5 with the over under at 44.5  On the face of it, this looks like an excellent proposition for Steelers fans who are convinced they have the best team in the NFL and disposing of the 6th seed Wild Card Packers is just a formality.  It also looks like an solid proposition for the Green and Gold because they cover point spreads as easily as they cover burgers with a thick slice of Cheddar.  GB has covered 10 games out of the last 13.  Pittsburgh are 7 and 6.  The two teams are, a mathematically surprising, combined 13 and 13 in the over under scenario.

44.5 is also tempting number for the over OR the under.  Both teams are capable of covering that number on their own if they win the defensive battle. However, that is a VERY big if, statistically, these are the best two defenses in the NFL this year.

Incidentally, when the Eagle was fact checking the Superbowl, we found that the average score for the past 10 superbowls is 45.9  41.2 for the last 5 years and 43 for the last 3.
The average Margin of Victory is 10.7 for 10 years, 8.8 for 5 years and 7 for the past 3 years.
As most of you know, there has only been One Superbowl decided by less than 3 points and that was Superbowl XXV in 1991 when the New York Giants beat the Buffalo Bills 20-19 after Buffalo missed a last second field goal attempt to give the victory to the Giants.

Word on the street is that because all the Packer Backers were so flush with cash after 3 great covers in the playoffs that the GREEN FROM THE GREEN AND GOLD WENT INTO THE BOOK EARLY, (some money went down while the Pittsburgh game was in progress due to offshore books jumping the gun with a point spread) AND THE BOOKS ARE VERY UNBALANCED IN NEVADA RIGHT NOW.
If the Pittsburgh money does not arrive this weekend we are going to see that line grow as the week unfolds.  We might see Packers by 4 to 4.5.  SO IF YOU ARE LEANING TOWARDS A GREEN BAY VICTORY DON'T DELAY, TAKE THAT 2.5 BEFORE IT BECOMES A FIELD GOAL AND GOD FORBID A TOUCHDOWN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

For the unemotional sports investor, with these two teams, most of us can make the case for every possible outcome.  PACKERS UNDER     PACKERS OVER     STEELERS UNDER     STEELERS OVER. Take your pick.  They all sound feasible.
Think about all these scenarios and check back tomorrow because I have done the analysis, I have statistically played this game and I WILL LAY IT OUT FOR EVERYONE TOMORROW !

See you then

Eagleseye

1/22/11

Free NFL Picks Conference Championship Weekend

Last week was another winning weekend in terms of picks and we believe that the EAGLESEYE system has flushed out the winners again this weekend.
Lines are Steelers -3.5 or 4 dependent upon where you book.  Over Under 38.5 or 39
Green Bay -3.5 and Over Under 42.5 or 3.

Vegas loves to create those two big piles and I believe they have achieved their goal.

The Packer Bear Line was Genius, Pure Genius  Opened 3.5 and there it sits.  A perfect spread
Packer fans who we all know bet with their heart AND their cash have been enticed with the promise of a return to the Superbowl without Brett Favre.  A Very Nice victory in Atlanta and therefore a slim 3.5 against the arch enemy.
Bear Fans have so much hatred for the Pack and have so much blind faith in their team that they are loving the Bears +3.5 at home.
Two neatly stacked piles of cash and two groups of confident punters just waiting for the final whistle to collect their winnings.

Likewise the 3.5 for the Jets Pitt contest is also a very intelligent selection.
Jets Fans buoyed by that nice tidy whooping of the SuperBowl favorites in New England last week are certain they are the team of destiny this year.  Getting 3.5 against the Steelers looks like excellent motivation for a wager.
Pittsburgh playing hard nosed, in your face smashmouth football, easily disposed of Baltimore and their fans already have reservations for flight and hotel in Dallas in a fortnight.  3.5 points looks like a steal to them.

AHHH !!!!!! the beauty of the UNEMOTIONAL handicapping system.
We are unencumbered by any of this warm fuzzy emotion that creeps into our decision making ability at this time of year.  We are locked and loaded based on the facts.  The facts that lead us to the CORRECT, RATIONAL, CONTINUOUSLY IMPROVING SOLUTION.

The Eagle has 4 strong opinions this week and with an 8 week winning streak on the line is ready to go 4 and 0 this weekend to really Beef up the Bankroll for Superbowl Sunday.  You have less than 24 hours to contact me for this information.  Email me ASAP at eagleseyenfl@gmail.com
This information will be free as an incentive for future participation.  It will come with a guarantee so jump in today before the season passes you by.

1/13/11

FREE NFL PICKS DIVISION CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND

We have several very interesting game coiming up this weekend.
It looks like the lines have grooved in and we have some interesting and potentially profitable insight into this weeks confrontations for division champions.
Email eagleseyenfl@gmail.com for this information
FREE PICKS WILL BE GIVEN TO YOU AS AN INCENTIVE TO JOIN THE INNER SANCTUM.
OUR INSIDERS ARE UP 488% SINCE WEEK 12 AND A SOLID GOLD 6 WEEK WINNING STREAK.

1/10/11

NFL PICKS WILD CARD WEEKEND

WHAT A GREAT WEEKEND OF FOOTBALL
EAGLESEYE is on a roll
The INNER SANCTUM of the eagleseye enjoyed another excellent winning week with 75% GOLD AND SILVER EAGLES THIS WEEK.
Our unemotional continuously improving data delivered handsomely this week with our accurate projections on all games this weekend.
Stats for the year are at season highs and we are already preparing for the 4 games next weekend.
email me at eagleseyenfl@gmail.com to make sure you have the inside scoop on all 7 remaining games.
Lines are hours away from opening and we are ready to jump all over them. (NE JETS are already open and we have our picks locked and loaded ready for another winning weekend.
You cannot afford to miss the boat on the upcoming divisional games.
Eagleseye

1/3/11

WEEK 17 REVIEW

What a finish to the regular season.
Generic picks were 13 and 3.  Season totals were respectably in positive territory.
GOLDEN EAGLES 65% WITH MONDAY NIGHT EAGLES 80%
That howeever, is only part of the story.  Due to the continually improving nature of the Eagleseye System, we are just hitting stride.
We are on a substantial 5 game winning streak that will strike terror in the heart of your bookmaker.

As I began to explain in my last post, there are reasons why unemotional sports wagering can thrive during the win or go home stages of seasonal sports.
1)  The sports books, in general, do not care who wins these games.  They only want to balance the book.
2)  Because there are fewer games, the amounts wagered on each game get larger, therefore the efforts that are made to balance the piles of money on each side of the line are more critical and also more fluid.  Just look at what has happened already with the line of the Eagles Packers contest.  It opened at most books at Eagles -4 and very quickly moved to eagles -2.5.  Crossing a line from a field goal + to under a field goal in the first 24 hours is very significant.
3)  Teams will be firing on all cylinders and are unlikely to have let down weeks.
4)  Large market teams that have larger followings tend to have larger followings of cash also.  Oddsmakers take this into account when setting lines because it increases potential exposure.  Lines on Big Market teams can be exaggerated.  This creates opportunities for people that are not emotionally attached.

There are 4 Play Off games this weekend and EAGLESEYE SELECTIONS WILL NOT BE MADE PUBLIC until after the fact so now is the time to email me at eagleseyenfl@gmail.com

Thanks for your support this year and keep checking back for paly off reviews and breakdowns.
EAGLESEYE

1/1/11

FREE NFL PICKS WEEK 17

Here we go Ladies and Gentlemen its the final week of the regular season and we have 16 games to keep an EAGLESEYE on tomorrow.  Excellent.
The GOOD news is it should be a great week of NFL Football with several games having significant importance.  Not the least of them is the Packers Bears finale in Green Bay where game time weather forecast is 15 degrees, partly sunny and WSW winds at 15 to 25 MPH.  It should be EPIC.
The BAD news is that the handicappers in Vegas look awfully cagey on most of this weekends games.
There are a few gems hidden in this weeks lines and they can be yours if you contact me at eagleseyenfl@gmail.com
The Eagle is on a significant roll and his eyesight is getting clearer every week.

Here are the generic picks but if you are lucky enough to have some profits this season, be very vigilant before wading in to the water this week.  There are sharks circling for your cash before the playoffs begin, because the playoffs have larger exposure.  More on that next week.

PITT-6.5 V CLEV       UNDER 38
TENN +10 V INDY    OVER 48
OAK +3 V K CITY     OVER 43.5
CINCY +10 V BALT  UNDER 43.5
WASH +4 V NYG       UNDER 45
DALL +3 V PHIL        OVER 43.5
ATL -14.5 V CAR      UNDER 41.5
TB +7 V NEW ORL   OVER 46.5
DET -3 V MINN        OVER 43
JETS -2 V BUFF        OVER 39.5
NE -5.5 V MIA          OVER 44
HOU -3 V JAX           OVER 46
G BAY -9.5 V CGO  OVER 43
STL -3.5 V SEA        OVER 42
AZ +6 V SAN F        OVER 39.5
SAN D -3.5 V DEN   UNDER 47.5

Happy New Year Everyone