FREE NFL PICKS WIN TOTALS 2011

Here is the final word on win totals for the 2011/2012 NFL season.
There is planty of data out regarding Strength of Schedule, Draft Ratings and Free Agent Moves, so the EAGLESEYE is confident that we are on track here.
Consistent with the system's strategy regarding Margin of Error, the Gold and Silver Picks look very strong, and are only proposed when we have plaenty of cushion.
As I stated in my previous post, when you collect your winnings next January, put some aside for the purchase of this guidance next year, because it will not be free.

DEFINITIVE GUIDANCE (PART ONE)
(Vegas win total is stated after team name)

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE 10.5 WINS
Ravens have a concensus power rating of about 7.  Had 12 wins last year and should have a very good year again this year.  The clincher here is that they have the second weakest schedule which makes 13 a likely total.
THIS IS A GOLD PICK           TAKE THE OVER

CINCINNATI 7 WINS
Despite the weak schedule, the Bengals have long season ahead of them.  Concensus power rating is 25 and they are unlikely to improve on the 5 wins from last year.
THIS IS A SILVER PICK       TAKE THE UNDER

CLEVELAND 7 WINS
The Eagleseye feels sorry for the Browns this year.  On paper they do not look as good as they were last year.  They have the lowest power rating (29) and the highest (19) strength of schedule in the AFC North.  The best they will do this year is 5 wins.
THIS IS A SILVER PICK        TAKE THE UNDER

PITTSBURGH 11 WINS
Steelers look solid again this year.  They will probably end up with the #1 defence in the NFL again and that will win them a lot of games.  Concensus power rating is 3 and they have the 27th weakest schedule.  A repeat of last years 12 wins seems to be locked and loaded for this year and they should improve on that based on the weaker schedule.
THIS IS A SILVER PICK        TAKE THE OVER

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON      8 WINS
Houston finished week 17 last year with a power rating of 25 and 6 wins.  They are obviously a better team this year but how much better is hard to predict.  Eagleseye gives them a power rating of around 17 but they have a fairly tough schedule (10).  7 wins are locked, 8 wins are probable and 9 wins are possible. BUT we do not risk our hard earned profits on potential.
Eagleseye says NO ACTION.

INDIANAPOLIS    9.5 WINS
Colts are looking precarious to the Eagle this year.  They appear to be a little weaker than last year and have dropped to 12 in the concencus power rating.  They also have a #3 ranked strength of schedule so on paper it looks like one less win than the 10 from last year.
Eagleseye says 9 is the number so we are UNDER but no margin of error to give us any confidence.

JACKSONVILLE 6.5 WINS
Jags have a #3 ranked strength of schedule like the Colts and are ranked around 23 on concensus power rankings.  Vegas has them pegged 1.5 wins below 2010's total of 8.  They should not breach the 6 mark and hopefully will win 5 at most.
Eagleseye says UNDER but again like the Colts, we do not have enough margin of error to justify laying the lumber on the Jags.

TENNESSEE 7 WINS
Titans are another team that appear to be weaker than 2010.  They won 6 last year but have a weaker schedule this year (23).  Power ranking is around 20.  Eagle sees 7 as the absolute maximum number of wins that the Titans will achieve this year so this is a relatively safe investment.  However, we do not want to tie up our bankroll in wagers that could end up in a tie.  If you can get 7.5 then thats a different story.
Eagleseye says NO ACTION

AFC EAST

BUFFALO 5.5 WINS
It looks like the Bills are going to be relatively relable this year.  By that I mean that they are going to be quite predictable.  Hopefully the Eagleseye is correct about that, then we will be able to exploit the lines on the Buffalo games.
Tough schedule (3).  Poor power rating (27).  The Eagleseye sees 4 on the cards for the Bills and we have lots of company.
THIS IS A SILVER PICK          TAKE THE UNDER

MIAMI    7.5 WINS
The Dolphins did not do themselves any favors in the off season.  They slipped 4 spots in the power ratings to 19 and have a schedule that is ranked 10th.  We have seen one pundit that is touting 10 wins for the fish this year and I do not know where that is coming from.  However, it appears that our prediciton is not going to leave too much margin of error.
Eagleseye says 7 possible, 6 probable so we are UNDER but caution is recommended.

NEW ENGLAND   11.5 WINS
Consensus Power Ranking #1.  Strength of Schedule #15.  14 wins last year.  Slight improvement in the off season.  Eagleseye sees 12 as a lock, 13 as a probable and 14 as a possible.
THIS IS A SILVER PICK    TAKE THE OVER

NEW YORK JETS  10 WINS
Conventional wisdom is that the Jets are not improved over last year.  However, there are not many sports journalists willing to give up on them.  Power rank is 10 ish and they have a tough schedule.  11 wins last year and there will be 11 wins this year.
Eagleseye says take the OVER but keep it reasonable.

AFC WEST

DENVER          5 WINS
The Broncos are under construction and a running into a tough schedule this year.  Too early to tell if there are going to be any signs of dramatic improvement. 4 wins last year and their schedule was a little easier.  Eagleseye says 3 wins might be the number here and 4 would not be a surprise so we have a little cushion.
THIS IS A SILVER PICK      TAKE THE UNDER

KANSAS CITY    7.5 WINS
Hail to the Chiefs, I mean the Oddsmakers, they have taken the wiggle room out of this wager.  KC might win more than 8 this year, but a tougher schedule than 2010 makes 9 wins a bit of a pipe dream.  Therefore this is too tight.
Eagleseye says NO ACTION is the right move here.

OAKLAND     7 WINS
The Raiders are not the team they were last year. Far from it.  24 is their generous concensus power rating.  19 is their strength of schedule.  The Eagleseye does not see anything in the stats that would lead us to believe that 7 wins are achievable.  4 is probable, 5 is possible, 6 would be an achievement.
THIS IS A GOLD PICK     TAKE THE UNDER

SAN DIEGO    9.5 WINS
The Chargers are the cream of this AFC West crop.  Power rating 9 but a relatively tough schedule.
9 wins last season and that might turn into a 10 or remain a 9 this season.  Too tight for an investment, unless you want to wager on them winning the AFC West, which is a lock.  Good luck finding that action.
Eagleseye says NO ACTION unless you have money to burn.

There you have the AFC.  2 SOLID GOLDS and 6 SOLID SILVER
Strength of schedule in the AFC on average appears to be tougher than the NFC, so we can have a little more fun with the NFC.
The Eagleseye NFC picks include 4 SOLID GOLD PICKS and 3 SOLID SILVER PICKS.
Please check back tomorrow night for the inside scoop.

EAGLESEYE