Fantastic football last weekend.  McCarthys game plan cost us the over in the Packers Bears game. but hey, he got his team to the Superbowl.    Pittsburgh also played that "get ahead early and then hold the lead" game.  At least we managed to get an OVER out of them.  Therefore it was a VERY successful weekend for the Eagleseye.  3 of 4 of our picks came home to bring the winning streak all the way from week 12.  Since then the INNER SANCTUM has enjoyed a 599% return on investment.  I cannot find a system that has done better than that.  If you can PLEASE LET ME KNOW.

The SUPERBOWL line is Packers -2.5 with the over under at 44.5  On the face of it, this looks like an excellent proposition for Steelers fans who are convinced they have the best team in the NFL and disposing of the 6th seed Wild Card Packers is just a formality.  It also looks like an solid proposition for the Green and Gold because they cover point spreads as easily as they cover burgers with a thick slice of Cheddar.  GB has covered 10 games out of the last 13.  Pittsburgh are 7 and 6.  The two teams are, a mathematically surprising, combined 13 and 13 in the over under scenario.

44.5 is also tempting number for the over OR the under.  Both teams are capable of covering that number on their own if they win the defensive battle. However, that is a VERY big if, statistically, these are the best two defenses in the NFL this year.

Incidentally, when the Eagle was fact checking the Superbowl, we found that the average score for the past 10 superbowls is 45.9  41.2 for the last 5 years and 43 for the last 3.
The average Margin of Victory is 10.7 for 10 years, 8.8 for 5 years and 7 for the past 3 years.
As most of you know, there has only been One Superbowl decided by less than 3 points and that was Superbowl XXV in 1991 when the New York Giants beat the Buffalo Bills 20-19 after Buffalo missed a last second field goal attempt to give the victory to the Giants.

Word on the street is that because all the Packer Backers were so flush with cash after 3 great covers in the playoffs that the GREEN FROM THE GREEN AND GOLD WENT INTO THE BOOK EARLY, (some money went down while the Pittsburgh game was in progress due to offshore books jumping the gun with a point spread) AND THE BOOKS ARE VERY UNBALANCED IN NEVADA RIGHT NOW.
If the Pittsburgh money does not arrive this weekend we are going to see that line grow as the week unfolds.  We might see Packers by 4 to 4.5.  SO IF YOU ARE LEANING TOWARDS A GREEN BAY VICTORY DON'T DELAY, TAKE THAT 2.5 BEFORE IT BECOMES A FIELD GOAL AND GOD FORBID A TOUCHDOWN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

For the unemotional sports investor, with these two teams, most of us can make the case for every possible outcome.  PACKERS UNDER     PACKERS OVER     STEELERS UNDER     STEELERS OVER. Take your pick.  They all sound feasible.
Think about all these scenarios and check back tomorrow because I have done the analysis, I have statistically played this game and I WILL LAY IT OUT FOR EVERYONE TOMORROW !

See you then


No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.