Before I go forward with my analysis of the Superbowl I want to provide a disclaimer. This is NOT the Eagleseye pick. We have run the numbers and there is not enough security to make a GOLD OR SILVER pick on this years Main Event.
As I said yesterday, the early money was for the Pack and that is being met with some balance now in Las Vegas even though there was a 1 MILLION DOLLAR WAGER placed with the MGM yesterday on Green Bay -2.5. There has also been some serious money wagered on the UNDER and that number will probably move lower in the next few hours.
Initially the Sportsbooks were salivating at the possibility that this game would prove to be the heaviest wagered in history, surpassing the 94.5 Million wagered in 2006. (The recession has cut that number significantly in the past few years). However the current projections are closer to 85 million. This is Vegas only of course, it doesnt include offshore or Office Pool money.
Lets get back to next Sunday's contest.
As I said yesterday, I do not think we have seen the best game from each of these teams and they are both facing their most competent opponents of the season. When you try to compare the Steelers and Packers on recent performances, there are some distinct differences that will have implications on Sunday. It is these differences that cannot be seen with statistical analysis, (hence no eagleseye selection), but appears relatively obvious upon detailed review.
I could go on for pages and pages laying out this game as it MIGHT play out but lets cut to the chase and see how it WILL play out.
GREEN BAY WILL WIN THIS GAME BY AT LEAST 7 POINTS.
THE GAME WILL GO OVER THE CURRENT 44.5 POINTS
Green Bay have been in the "MUST WIN" mindset since their narrow loss to the Patriots in Week 15.
Since then they have disposed of the Giants (Power Rank 10) 45-17. Chicago (Power Rank 2), Philly (Power Rank 11), Atlanta (Power Rank 6), Chicago again (Power Rank 3). Each time they have had an excellent, well executed game plan and different pieces of the team have stepped up to pull out the win.
McCarthy has not played an all out game since the Patriots and they went into New England on a Sunday night, threw down the gauntlet with an onside kick to start the game and almost beat the Power Ranked Number 1 team in a 27-31 barnburner. Even in the Atlanta game, the Packers put the Falcons away in the Second Quarter. Had two long outatanding drives in the 3rd quarter and basically containd and stiff-armed the opponent in the fourth. This is a very well efficent team with a versatile arsenal of weapons and a very competent coaching staff that knows exactly what they are capable of.
Green Bay will abandon a concerted running game and pull out all their offensive weapons, some of which have not been seen yet. They will expose the holes in the Steelers secondary and that injury to the Pouncey will aid the Packers. As long as Rodgers does not take a helmet to the jaw early in the game and gets time to check down the pass options, we will see a clinic on Sunday.
Defences get teams to the Superbowl and sometimes they can win Superbowls but these teams are so evenly matched on the line they will cancel each other out. The one area that is going to be a surprise in this game is that in order to run clock, the pack are going to have to pass, YES PASS. Running 3 times up the middle for 2 yards a carry is not going to get this done, and they know it. Therefore the Packers will be playing a very open game so it should be very enjoyable to watch.
As Pittsburgh get behind, Pittsburghs Number 7 will be forced to take more risks. This is something that Pittsburgh, while being a very capable team, are just not used to doing. In part, because they have not really needed to do so. Even in the Baltimore game where a bad first quarter had them playing catch up, they had the game in hand and were so obviously the better team. Mendenhall is a scary player, and Ward is dangerous but as long as they don't let his trash talk get under their skin, the Packers should be able to contain and outscore. Getting to Roethlisberger is key but he's a big target and not as agile as Vick or Ryan and they have disposed of them already.
MY PREDICTION AND INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
GREEN BAY PACKERS 30
PACK TO WIN BY 5-8 PTS IS CURRRENTLY 5/1
PACK TO WIN BY 9-12 IS CURRENTLY 7/1
IST SCORE PACKERS FIELD GOAL 11/4
IST SCORE PITT FIELD GOAL 3/1
PACKERS TO SCORE IN EVERY QUARTER 2/1
TOTAL POINTS SCORED 46 TO 50 4/1
TOTAL POINTS SCORED 51 TO 55 5/1
PACKERS TO SCORE 28 10/1
PACKERS TO SCORE 30 12/1
PACKERS TO SCORE 33 20/1
AND MY FAVORITE INVESTMENT FOR THE SUPERBOWL
AND MY LOCK OF THE WEEK.......................................
GOD WILL BE THE FIRST PERSON THANKED BY THE MVP 3/2
Enjoy what should be a fun and exciting game.
Thanks for reading